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Know what it should cost.

Independent installed-price ranges for heat pumps, furnaces, AC and water heaters, broken down by system, size and state.

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What a replacement costs, nationally

Installed price: equipment, labor, permits, refrigerant and removal of the old system. Existing ductwork assumed sound. Before any state or utility rebate.

How we calculate these ranges
AC and furnace, full system2,000 sq ft, existing ducts
$8,000–20,000typical $11,000–15,000
Heat pump, ducted3 ton, existing ducts
$6,000–16,000typical $9,000–12,000
Ductless mini split1 to 4 zones
$2,000–14,500typical $4,000–9,000
Central air conditioner3 ton, existing ducts
$4,000–12,000typical $6,000–9,500
Gas furnace80k BTU, 80 to 96 AFUE
$3,800–12,000typical $5,200–8,800
Water heater, tank40 to 50 gallon
$900–2,600typical $1,200–1,900
Water heater, tanklessgas, like for like
$1,400–5,600typical $3,000–4,500
$0$10,000$20,000
Full observed rangeWhere most quotes land

Every system in the house, priced

Five systems account for almost every five-figure estimate a homeowner receives.

Cross section of a house showing five heating and cooling systems Line drawing of a two level house with an outdoor heat pump unit, a wall mounted mini split head, a furnace, a water heater and duct runs, each marked with a numbered key. 1 2 3 4 5
1 Heat pumps and mini splits 2 Air conditioning 3 Furnaces and boilers 4 Water heaters 5 Ductwork and insulation

Prices by state

Marketplace quote data puts state averages for the same heat pump job from roughly $8,000 to about $33,000. Labor rates, permit fees and climate do most of that.

Florida$6,000–12,000AC or heat pump replacementTexas$7,000–12,000AC or heat pump replacementCalifornia$8,000–13,000AC or heat pump replacementArizona$6,000–10,000AC or heat pump replacementMinnesota$4,800–7,700Gas furnace replacement

Each range is triangulated from independent published sources for that state, with the source count shown on the page. See what moves the price in your state.

6 systems, 14 states, one method.

We publish ranges, never a single number. Any site quoting one price for a job that varies by climate, house and installer is guessing.

  1. Installed price onlyEvery figure covers equipment, labor, permits and removal of the old system. Equipment-only prices make a quote look inflated when it is not.
  2. Local adjustmentNational ranges are adjusted for state labor rates and permit costs, because the same heat pump costs differently in Phoenix and in Boston.
  3. Sized by capacityRanges are tied to tonnage and BTU output, not to house size alone, so the comparison matches what is on your estimate.
  4. Reviewed and datedRanges are revised twice a year and every page carries the date it was last checked.

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