How we calculate prices
Every price on this site is a range with a defined scope. This page sets out how we build those ranges, what the figures include, and where they currently fall short. If you spot an error, tell us and we will correct it.
What we publish
We publish ranges, never a single national average. A national average for HVAC work is close to meaningless: the same 3 ton replacement can cost $4,000 in a straightforward swap and $12,000 in a hard-access attic with premium equipment. Averaging those two numbers describes no real house.
Inside each range we also publish a narrower band showing where most quotes land. That band is the part that actually helps you, because knowing the range runs from $4,000 to $12,000 tells you nothing about whether your own number is normal.
| System | Scope priced | Full range | Most quotes |
|---|---|---|---|
| AC and furnace, full system | 2,000 sq ft, existing ducts | $8,000–20,000 | $11,000–15,000 |
| Heat pump, ducted | 3 ton, existing ducts | $6,000–16,000 | $9,000–12,000 |
| Ductless mini split | 1 to 4 zones | $2,000–14,500 | $4,000–9,000 |
| Central air conditioner | 3 ton, existing ducts | $4,000–12,000 | $6,000–9,500 |
| Gas furnace | 80k BTU, 80 to 96 AFUE | $3,800–12,000 | $5,200–8,800 |
| Water heater, tank | 40 to 50 gallon | $900–2,600 | $1,200–1,900 |
| Water heater, tankless | gas, like for like | $1,400–5,600 | $3,000–4,500 |
What installed price means here
Installed price: equipment, labor, permits, refrigerant and removal of the old system. Existing ductwork assumed sound. Before any state or utility rebate.
Included in every figure: equipment, labor, permits, refrigerant, electrical connections at the equipment, startup and testing, and removal and disposal of the old system.
Not included: new or replacement ductwork, electrical panel upgrades, asbestos abatement, structural or carpentry work, after-hours emergency premiums, extended labor warranties, and any state or utility rebate.
That last exclusion matters more than it sounds. A large share of published prices are quoted after incentives, which makes them look lower than the number a contractor will actually put in front of you. Ours are before any rebate, so they compare directly against the estimate on your kitchen table.
How we build a range
Four steps, in this order.
- Collect. We gather published 2026 pricing data from the sources listed below, covering contractor surveys, marketplace quote data, manufacturer guidance and mainstream reporting.
- Normalise. Every figure is restated to one scope: installed, before rebates, existing ductwork. A price covering equipment alone is not comparable to a price covering a finished job, and most of the disagreement between published sources comes from exactly this.
- Discard. If a figure cannot be normalised because the source does not say what it covers, we drop it. We would rather work from four usable sources than ten ambiguous ones.
- Band. The full range spans the normalised low and high. The typical band is set where the normalised sources overlap, which is the closest honest approximation of the middle of the market.
Why published prices disagree so violently
This is worth understanding, because it explains why price research is so frustrating. For a ducted heat pump in 2026, Angi reports an average near $6,100 from customer-reported projects. HomeGuide puts a typical air-source installation between $10,000 and $25,000. EnergySage, working from real quotes placed through its own marketplace, reports a national average around $15,400 before incentives.
Those are not small differences. They are not mostly errors either. Five things drive them apart:
- Scope. Some figures cover one outdoor unit, others a whole-home system with an air handler.
- Incentives. Some are before rebates, some after, and many do not say.
- Sample. Customer-reported surveys skew toward simpler and cheaper jobs, because complex projects are less likely to be reported at all.
- Timing. The refrigerant transition raised equipment costs, so a 2023 figure and a 2026 figure are different products.
- Incentive to publish a low number. A site paid per lead benefits from a price that looks approachable. We are not going to pretend that does not shape published averages.
Our sources
| Source | What it measures |
|---|---|
| EnergySage Marketplace | real quotes, state level heat pump data |
| HomeGuide | contractor survey ranges by system and efficiency tier |
| Angi | customer reported project costs |
| Fixr | pricing database and contractor input |
| Homewyse | unit cost method, labor and materials |
| CBS News | full system replacement reporting, 2026 |
| Carrier and Bryant | manufacturer published price guidance |
What we do not do
- We do not publish a single national average and call it your price.
- We do not present false precision. If the honest answer is a wide spread, we publish the wide spread.
- We do not shade figures to make a quote look like a ripoff. A high quote is often a correct quote for a difficult job.
- We are supported by advertising, which is disclosed on every page. Advertisers have no input into our ranges.
Where these numbers currently fall short
Stated plainly, because a methodology page that only lists strengths is marketing.
- These ranges come from published sources, not yet from a primary sample of homeowner quotes. We are collecting that sample now. When it is large enough to stand on, we will publish the sample size alongside every range and say which state and capacity each observation came from.
- State-level figures are not published yet. Labor rates and permit fees move the same job by thousands of dollars, and we would rather publish nothing than interpolate a number for your state from a national one.
- Federal incentives changed. The Section 25C and 25D residential energy credits expired for property placed in service after 31 December 2025. For 2026 work, state and utility programs are the live pathway, and those vary enormously by address.
- Ranges age. We revise them twice a year and stamp the review date at the foot of this page.
How to use a range against your own quote
- Check the scope before the number. Ask the contractor to confirm in writing that the price includes permits, refrigerant, removal and disposal. A quote missing those is not cheaper, it is incomplete.
- Check the capacity. Compare against the range for the tonnage or BTU output on the estimate, not for your square footage. If nobody performed a load calculation, that is a bigger problem than the price.
- Check the efficiency tier. A high-efficiency system at the top of the range can be correctly priced, and a basic system at the same price is not.
- Get three quotes. Nothing on this page substitutes for that. Our range tells you whether to be surprised. Three quotes tell you what your house actually costs.
Corrections
If a figure here does not match what you were quoted, that is useful to us. Send the details, including your state, the capacity and what the quote covered, and we will factor it into the next revision.
Last reviewed July 2026.